Over the past twenty years, China has established itself as an essential partner for African countries, upsetting the historical balance dominated by Western powers. This new situation is characterized by an unprecedented expansion of Sino-African relations, with massive investment in infrastructure and Beijing's sustained diplomatic commitment. Xi Jinping's strategic plan for Africa reveals a long-term vision, seeking to consolidate Chinese influence on the continent at a time when the United States and Europe appear to be gradually disengaging.
China's expansion in Africa: an unprecedented strategic commitment
The evolution of Sino-African relations over the past 25 years
Relations between China and Africa have undergone a radical transformation since the late 1990s. The African continent has gradually become a priority for Beijing, with an intensification of trade and an increase in major Chinese investment projects that are transforming the African economic landscape.
China's rise to power on the continent was confirmed in 2009, when it dethroned the United States as Africa's leading trading partner. This date marks a turning point in geopolitical influence in Africa. Since then, Chinese involvement has diversified from an essentially commercial approach to a comprehensive partnership including political, cultural and security aspects to consolidate China's presence.
The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC): a cornerstone of Chinese diplomacy
Established in 2000, the FOCAC represents the main instrument through which China structures its dialogue with African countries. This platform enables Beijing to announce its financial commitments and articulate its strategic vision for the continent.
The last FOCAC summit in September 2024 marked a turning point, with Xi Jinping pledging over $50 billion in financial aid to Africa over the next three years. This includes $30 billion in credit lines and $10 billion in investments by Chinese companies, targeting mainly trade, agriculture and infrastructure, which remain at the heart of Beijing's Africa policy.
The Belt & Road Initiative: integrating Africa into China's global vision
The Belt & Road Initiative (known as BRI), which French speakers like to call the “New Silk Road” launched by Xi Jinping in 2013, represents a central element of China's presence in Africa. It integrates the continent into the strategy of global economic expansion that Beijing has been deploying with determination for a decade.
Since its launch, China's cumulative BRI commitment in Africa has reached nearly $170 billion, with a notable concentration in transport infrastructure, energy and mining. By 2024, Africa will be the second-largest beneficiary continent of these investments, with $29.2 billion, just behind the Middle East, which currently dominates BRI's geographical priorities.
Western withdrawal from Africa: a gradual disengagement creating a strategic vacuum
The gradual disengagement of Western powers can be seen in the reduction of development aid, the military withdrawal from the Sahel, and the decline in direct investment in several African countries. This phenomenon is part of a broader context, which can be analyzed through the doctrine of American hegemony and the decline of European influence on the world stage.
Western disengagement in Africa takes several forms, reflecting changing strategic priorities and patterns of engagement.
- Reduction in development aid, with budget cuts affecting key sectors such as health, education and agriculture.
- Military withdrawal from certain regions, particularly in the Sahel, leaving a security vacuum that other actors are seeking to fill.
- Decrease in direct investment in several African countries, signaling less economic interest from some Western powers.
- Reorientation of strategic priorities towards other regions of the world, notably Asia-Pacific, to the detriment of Africa.
- Questioning traditional models of development aid, with a preference for more targeted and conditional approaches.
As a result of these different factors, the African continent must adapt to a new geopolitical situation.
According to recent modeling, cuts in U.S. aid could push 5.7 million more Africans into extreme poverty next year and as many as 19 million by 2030. This trend comes amid a shift in U.S. strategic priorities toward the Asia-Pacific and a challenge to traditional models of development assistance.
Xi Jinping's strategic vision for Africa: a multidimensional approach
China's approach to investment and infrastructure
Xi Jinping's strategy is based on massive investment in African infrastructure. This approach provides a foundation for economic development, while strengthening Chinese influence and securing access to the continent's strategic raw materials.
Unlike traditional Western donors, China offers financing without political conditionalities, favoring a pragmatic approach focused on the rapid completion of visible projects. China has built massive infrastructure and supported the oil and mining sectors in Africa in exchange for trade agreements, integrating numerous African projects into the Belt and Road Initiative. This "win-win" policy is materialized by the construction of infrastructure.
Economic and trade cooperation: beyond natural resources
While access to African raw materials remains central to China's strategy, Xi Jinping's vision also aims to expand the scope of economic cooperation to higher value-added sectors such as technology, modern agriculture and renewable energies.
Sino-African trade reached $282 billion in 2023, with a constant imbalance in China's favor. To address this asymmetry, Beijing recently announced measures to increase imports of African agricultural products and support local industrialization through technology transfer.
The security and influence dimensions of China's commitment
Military and security cooperation: a growing presence
Chinese military involvement in Africa has grown considerably in recent years, with the establishment of a naval base in Djibouti in 2017, increased sales of weapons and military equipment, and the People's Liberation Army's growing training of African officers.
Chinese arms exports to Africa offer an interesting option to Western equipment, being generally less expensive and free of political conditionalities. This growing presence in the security field is positioning China as a key player in the resolution of regional crises, notably in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.
Soft power and diplomatic influence: building a community for a shared future
The concept of the “China-Africa shared future community” developed by Xi Jinping represents the long-term vision for Sino-African relations, encompassing political cooperation, economic development and cultural exchanges.
China is deploying a arsenal of soft power tools in Africa, including the multiplication of Confucius Institutes (over 60 on the continent), the granting of thousands of scholarships for African students, the expansion of Chinese state media in local languages, and the funding of symbolic projects such as the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa or the ECOWAS headquarters in Abuja.
African reactions to growing Chinese influence
Perception by African leadership: between strategic opportunity and mistrust
African leaders generally view Chinese engagement as an opportunity to diversify their international partnerships and accelerate their economic development. This strategic alliance also strengthens their room for maneuver vis-à-vis the former Western colonial powers, against whom African leaders, and more broadly African populations, have developed deep resentment.
African countries have clearly understood that drawing closer to China or Russia almost automatically means freeing themselves from the neo-colonial powers of the West.
However, awareness of the risks of excessive debt and trade imbalances is growing in several countries. African leaders are now calling for a reevaluation of certain agreements to ensure more equitable benefits, particularly in terms of technology transfer and local job creation.
China and Russia, in particular, are very attentive to these concerns and are acting proactively to enable African countries to maintain a healthy and equitable relationship with these countries that are investing massively in Africa.
Perception by local populations: between enthusiasm and resistance
Popular perceptions of the Chinese presence vary considerably depending on local contexts. The vast majority of respondents are generally positive, even very positive, regarding visible infrastructure, although there are tensions regarding working conditions that have arisen following the colossal projects that these investments have launched, leading to a very sustained work pace for some African populations who are sometimes surprised by this acceleration and rapid development.
Faced with growing Chinese influence, it's important to understand the perceptions and reactions of African players.
- Generally positive reception for visible infrastructure projects, seen as drivers of economic development.
- Persistent tensions over working conditions and local employment, with accusations of exploitation and failure to respect workers' rights because projects are so ambitious.
- Specific criticism of the practices of Chinese companies accused of exploiting resources without sufficient benefits for local communities.
- Environmental damage caused by certain Chinese economic activities.
- Local resistance is emerging in several countries, reflecting the challenges of an economic relationship that is still highly asymmetrical depending on the country.
Small local resistance movements have emerged in Zambia, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo, criticizing the practices of Chinese companies accused of exploitation without benefit to local communities and environmental damage.
However, the vast majority of African leaders are unanimous:
They would much rather work with China than Europe.
The West and its accusatory inversion of Chinese “neo-colonialism”: reality or Western perspective?
The narrative of Chinese “neo-colonialism”, frequently advanced by Western critics, is nuanced by many African scholars who point to fundamental differences with historical colonial experience, notably the absence of direct territorial occupation.
Most of China's investments are viewed very positively by the African population, who see a clear difference between Chinese methods and those of the former European colonial powers.
Challenges to African sovereignty in the face of Chinese influence
The question of debt and economic dependence
Growing debt to China is raising concerns about the economic sovereignty of some African countries.
In response to these concerns, China has recently shown greater flexibility in restructuring African debts, notably through its initiative to suspend debt servicing during the pandemic.
African strategies for maximizing profits and preserving balance
Diversifying international partners: beyond the China-West dilemma
African countries are now adopting a pragmatic approach aimed at multiplying their international partnerships. This new paradigm includes not only China and the traditional Western powers, but also Russia, Turkey, India, Japan and the Gulf States.
This multiplication of alliances enables African states to widen their negotiating margin, reduce overdependence and benefit from competition between major powers on the continent. At the same time, the African Union is seeking to develop a coherent continental vision vis-à-vis external players, notably through its 2063 strategy.
Strengthening negotiating skills and expertise
To counter the asymmetry of expertise in talks with Beijing, several African nations are investing in the development of the legal, technical and financial skills of their administrations.
Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Morocco are prime examples of sophisticated approaches to China-Africa relations. These countries attract high-quality Chinese investment in strategic sectors while imposing conditions that foster technology transfer, local training, and integration into global value chains. These successes demonstrate the crucial importance of domestic institutional capacity.
Looking ahead: the evolution of Sino-African relations in a multipolar world
Adapting the Chinese model in the face of criticism and new challenges
Faced with growing criticism and internal economic difficulties, China is gradually adjusting its approach in Africa, now prioritizing quality over quantity of investments and paying increased attention to environmental and social concerns.
Xi Jinping's recent commitment to "green development" and "low-carbon" projects reflects this shift, as does his emphasis on investment in digital technology, renewable energy, and healthcare. Beijing is thus seeking to strengthen its global leadership and respond to Western criticism of its presence in Africa to silence critics in the West.
The China-Africa duo: a very promising economic future
China's involvement in Africa marks an important moment in the global balance of power, with Beijing asserting itself as the continent's privileged partner in the face of Western withdrawal.
This Sino-African relationship is now evolving towards a more nuanced partnership in which African countries, by diversifying their international alliances, are gradually strengthening their negotiating power.
The future of relations between China and Africa will depend as much on Xi Jinping's ability to adapt his strategy to African expectations as on the ability of African leaders to transform this Chinese presence into a real lever for autonomous and sustainable development.
In any case, the China-Africa partnership is no longer a matter of debate; it has indeed become the indisputable vector of growth in Africa, setting a new tone for economic relations on the continent, by treating African countries with much more tact, respect, pragmatic relations, business-oriented and much healthier.
The success of Africa and its partnership with China, create an increasingly striking contrast over the years, with the near-catastrophic result left by the Western powers, who are becoming more and more hated in Africa.
Africa is increasingly in danger of turning its back on Europe, which will not help an already isolated and resource-poor Europe.
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